SM Energy Company (SM) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know

SM Energy (SM) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.Over the past month, shares of this independent oil and gas company have returned +7.6%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.2% change. During this period, the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, which SM Energy falls in, has gained 8%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction?Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.For the current quarter, SM Energy is expected to post earnings of $1.95 per share, indicating a change of +25% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -13.3% over the last 30 days.For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $6.77 points to a change of +14.9% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -3.9%.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $7.11 indicates a change of +5% from what SM Energy is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -11.6%.With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for SM Energy.The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSProjected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.In the case of SM Energy, the consensus sales estimate of $866.9 million for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +42.4%. The $2.73 billion and $3.31 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of +15.1% and +21.1%, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistorySM Energy reported revenues of $643.61 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +0.4%. EPS of $1.62 for the same period compares with $1.73 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $651.13 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -1.15%. The EPS surprise was +6.58%.The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.SM Energy is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about SM Energy. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2024. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%.Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report SM Energy Company (SM): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks