Nutrien (NTR) Down 1.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Nutrien (NTR). Shares have lost about 1.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Nutrien due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. Nutrien's Q3 Earnings and Revenues Fall Short of EstimatesNutrien recorded third-quarter 2024 profit of $25 million or 4 cents per share, down from $82 million or 15 cents in the year-ago quarter. Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 39 cents. The bottom line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents.Sales fell around 5% year over year to $5,348 million in the quarter. The figure lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,362.9 million.The company's financial performance was adversely impacted by lower net realized selling prices in the Potash unit and decreased earnings from the Retail unit.NTR’s Segment HighlightsSales in the Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment declined 6% year over year to $3,271 million in the quarter. The figure outpaced our estimate of $3,174.5 million. Retail adjusted EBITDA decreased in the third quarter of 2024, owing to reduced crop nutrient sales volumes in North America and lower seed margins in Brazil. Adjusted EBITDA rose in the first nine months of the year, driven by better product margins in North America. Potash division’s sales declined 9% year over year to $884 million, missing our estimate of $975.7 million. Potash adjusted EBITDA fell in the third quarter and first nine months of 2024 due to lower net selling prices, partly offset by record sales volumes. Higher potash output and continuous advancements in mine automation contributed to lower controllable cash costs of products produced in the first nine months of 2024.Sales in the Nitrogen segment were $793 million, up around 10% year over year. The reported figure topped our estimate of $739.2 million. Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA rose in the third quarter of 2024, mostly owing to higher net selling prices. Adjusted EBITDA fell in the first nine months, as lower net selling prices more than offset lower natural gas costs and higher sales volumes. Sales in the Phosphate segment were $412 million, down around 7% year over year. The figure beat our estimate of $345.1 million. Phosphate adjusted EBITDA remained constant in the quarter, with increased net selling prices offset by reduced sales volumes and higher input costs. Adjusted EBITDA fell in the first nine months, as lower net selling prices more than offset stronger sales volumes and lower costs.FinancialsAt the end of the quarter, Nutrien had cash and cash equivalents of $520 million, down around 6.1% year over year. Long-term debt was $9,383 million, falling 0.4%.Cash used in operating activities was $908 million in the reported quarter.GuidanceNutrien lowered Retail adjusted EBITDA projection to $1.5-$1.6 billion due to improved growing conditions in North America, which resulted in lesser pest pressure and field activity in the third quarter. Potash sales volume projection was increased to 13.5-13.9 million tons due to ongoing strong worldwide demand. The range incorporates fourth-quarter maintenance downtime and the anticipation of a short-term labor disruption at the Port of Vancouver.Nitrogen sales volume projection has been reduced to 10.6-10.8 million tons due to extended turnarounds and unforeseen outages in the third quarter, including the impact of weather-related occurrences.Nutrien maintained its capital expenditures guidance for 2024 of $2.2-$2.3 billion and expects capital expenditures in a range of $2-$2.1 billion for 2025.  How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.The consensus estimate has shifted -25.86% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Nutrien has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Nutrien has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.Performance of an Industry PlayerNutrien belongs to the Zacks Fertilizers industry. Another stock from the same industry, CF Industries (CF), has gained 5.6% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2024.CF reported revenues of $1.37 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.6%. EPS of $1.55 for the same period compares with $0.85 a year ago.For the current quarter, CF is expected to post earnings of $1.58 per share, indicating a change of +6% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0.6% over the last 30 days.CF has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +24.1% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Nutrien Ltd. (NTR): Free Stock Analysis Report CF Industries Holdings, Inc. 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