Middle East Tensions Rise: Correction Ahead?

Geopolitical Tensions Rise as Earnings Season ApproachesStocks swooned Thursday after reports circulated that Iran fired hundreds of rockets into Israel in an apparent escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Crude oil, which had been down-trending, got a firm bid and was up more than 2% on massive volume. Meanwhile, investors flocked to the United States Oil Fund (USO) and defensive stocks such as Lockheed Martin (LMT). Following Iran’s aggression, the IDF pre-announced that they would retaliate and potentially target Iran’s crude oil infrastructure.See ZacksEarnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.Earnings Season Approaches“Earning’s season” usually occurs two weeks after the end of the quarter and refers to when most companies in the major U.S. indices like the S&P 500 Index report earnings. Over the next few weeks, leading stocks such as Tesla (TSLA), Freeport McMoran (FCX), and Netflix (NFLX) will report earnings. Often, strong stocks such as these will rally into earnings. However, investors likely have some concerns over the escalating conflicts worldwide. Are investors being too emotional, or should they panic?“Buy Bombs”“Buy Bombs” is an old Wall Street saying that illustrates the contrarian nature of markets. Though geopolitical events like 9/11 have caused broad market selloffs, in most instances, stocks sell off in anticipation of the events, and then, when the event finally occurs, stocks rally amid rampant fear. Markets are notoriously manipulative, and though every world citizen should be concerned and market participants should watch for further escalations, geopolitical events are often buyable dips, especially in bull markets (like the one we’re in now).Market Internals Tell the StorySavvy investors understand the importance of looking under the hood and beyond the market indices themselves. Late Thursday, the cumulative tick indicator (a technical analysis indicator that assesses overall buying or selling pressure) flipped positive, and down volume was muted (especially considering how weak the major indices were). In other words, thus far, the market is more robust than it looks. Though the conflict could escalate further, savvy investors understand the benefits of interpreting the action rather than predicting the future.Will October Bring Tax Selling?Tax loss harvesting is a procedure implemented by retail and institutional investors to decrease their taxable income by selling investments they are underwater in towards year-end. Often, institutional investors, who comprise the bulk of trading volume, give themselves a buffer and sell their losers in October. However, thus far, in 2024, U.S. equities are off to one of the best starts in history. Though October can sometimes spell danger like it did in 2023, the S&P 500 Index produced gains of ~8% in 2023 and ~7% in 2021. While some volatility is possible, investors should be open various outcomes in October.October SeasonalityRegarding seasonality, historical data suggests that analysis of the month of October requires investors to exercise some nuance. October is historically a positive month. That said, during presidential election years (like the one we’re in now), October is down -0.8% on average as investors show skittishness amidst uncertainty.Bottom LineWith geopolitical tensions rising and tax selling season in full swing, some October volatility is possible. However, the historical reactions to geopolitics and bullish market internals suggest it is too early for investors to panic.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.7% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT): Free Stock Analysis Report Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): Free Stock Analysis Report Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): Free Stock Analysis Report Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report United States Oil ETF (USO): ETF Research ReportsTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks