Important Factors to Watch Ahead of BP's Q4 Earnings Release

BP plc BP is set to report fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb. 11.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.Let us delve into the factors that are anticipated to have affected this integrated energy major’s quarterly performance. However, before that, it would be worth reviewing BP’s performance in the previous quarter.Highlights of Q3 EarningsIn the last reported quarter, the company’s adjusted earnings of 83 cents per American Depositary Share on a replacement-cost basis, excluding non-operating items, beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents but declined from the year-ago reported figure of $1.15.Better-than-expected quarterly earnings were primarily driven by higher liquid production and stronger retail fuel margins. However, the positives were partially offset by lower realized commodity prices and weaker refining margins.BP’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the same twice, delivering an average surprise of 1.86%. This is depicted in the graph below.BP p.l.c. Price and EPS Surprise  BP p.l.c. price-eps-surprise | BP p.l.c. QuoteEstimate TrendThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share of 56 cents has witnessed no upward movement and three downward revisions over the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests a 47.7% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues of $57.7 billion indicates a 9.8% increase from the year-ago reported figure.Factors to ConsiderAccording to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average monthly price of West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $71.99 per barrel in October 2024, $69.95 in November and $70.12 in December. While these prices were solid and stable, they remained lower than those in the same quarter of the previous year.On the production side, BP has warned investors about weaker fourth-quarter results due to declining oil and gas output, lower refining margins and trading challenges. The company anticipates a $300-million hit to profits from weaker refining margins and maintenance activities. Additionally, BP expects its oil production and operations unit to see a $200-$400 million decline, exacerbated by falling production levels and an oversupply from new refineries in Asia and Africa.As a result, lower commodity prices and reduced production are likely to have weighed on BP’s bottom line in the quarter under review.Earnings WhispersOur proven model does not indicate an earnings beat for BP this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.Earnings ESP: BP’s Earnings ESP is -13.71%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at earnings of 49 cents while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at earnings of 56 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.Stocks to ConsiderHere are three firms that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.Sunoco LP SUN currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.35% and flaunts a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Sunoco is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 11. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SUN’s earnings is pegged at $2.34 per share, suggesting a 256% upsurge from the prior-year reported figure.Antero Midstream AM presently has an Earnings ESP of +10.62% and a Zacks Rank #3.Antero Midstream is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 12. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AM’s earnings is pegged at 23 cents per share, suggesting a 4.2% decrease from the prior-year reported figure.Comstock Resources CRK currently has an Earnings ESP of +12.5% and a Zacks Rank #2.Comstock Resources is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 18. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRK’s earnings is pegged at 2 cents per share, suggesting an 80% decrease from the prior-year reported figure.5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2024. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +143.0%, +175.9%, +498.3% and +673.0%.Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report BP p.l.c. (BP): Free Stock Analysis Report Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK): Free Stock Analysis Report Sunoco LP (SUN): Free Stock Analysis Report Antero Midstream Corporation (AM): Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks