Global Payments Down Over 28% in a Year: How to Play the Stock?

Shares of Global Payments Inc. GPN have dropped 28.1% over the past year. This is much worse than the industry’s 20.4% decline, while the S&P 500 gained 16.9%. The fall reflects deal concerns, weak sentiment in fintech and slow growth in 2025. During this time, peers like Fiserv, Inc. FISV and ACI Worldwide, Inc. ACIW fell 74.1% and 26%, respectively.1-Year Price Performance – GPN, FISV, ACIW, Industry & S&P 500 Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHeadquartered in Atlanta, GA, Global Payments is a payment technology and software provider with a market cap of $18.9 billion.What’s Holding the Stock Back?Investor money has moved away from payments and fintech into faster-growing areas like AI and big tech. This shift has hurt Global Payments more because its growth has already slowed. The Worldpay acquisition and the sale of the Issuer Solutions unit have reshaped the business. The company is now a more focused commerce player. But investors want proof that this transition will work. Integration risks remain a key concern.Profitability is another issue. Return on invested capital stands at around 7.7%, well below the industry average of 23.3%. This shows the business is not generating strong returns yet.Valuation also reflects this caution. The stock trades at 4.91X forward earnings, far below its five-year median of 10.53X and the industry average of 17.27X. The low multiple signals weak investor confidence.Competition is rising across digital payments. New fintech players are expanding fast. Pricing pressure is increasing. This makes it harder for GPN to protect margins and market share.Cash flow has also weakened. Operating cash flow fell to $2.7 billion in 2025 from $3.1 billion a year ago. At the same time, leverage remains elevated, with a long-term debt-to-capital ratio of 45.6%, above the industry average of 38.8%.What Can Drive a Turnaround?A recovery depends on execution, not expectations.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings stands at $13.87 per share, implying 13.5% growth. It has witnessed six upward estimate revisions and two downward revisions over the past month.Partnerships remain a key strength. Deals with players like Alphabet, Mastercard, CaixaBank and Virgin Money are helping expand its reach and capabilities.Demand is also improving in key areas. More small and mid-sized businesses are adopting unified POS and embedded payment solutions. This supports higher transaction volumes and recurring software revenue.If the company delivers on integration, improves margins and stabilizes growth, the stock can re-rate from current levels.Final TakeGlobal Payments is not broken, but it is in transition. The stock looks cheap, but the market is waiting for proof. Execution over the next few quarters will decide whether this becomes a recovery story or stays a value trap. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is HereThe AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.SeeWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Fiserv, Inc. (FISV): Free Stock Analysis Report Global Payments Inc. (GPN): Free Stock Analysis Report ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks