AZN Q4 Earnings Lag, Sales Beat, Stock Up on China Probe Update

AstraZeneca’s AZN fourth-quarter 2024 core earnings of $1.05 per American depositary share (“ADS”) missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07. Core earnings of $2.09 per share rose 44% year over year on a reported basis and 49% at constant exchange rates (“CER”).Total revenues of $14.89 billion rose 24% on a reported basis and 25% at CER, driven by higher product sales and alliance revenues from partnered medicines. Revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.28 billion.All growth rates mentioned below are on a year-over-year basis and at CER.AZN’s Product Sales, Alliance & Collaboration RevenuesProduct sales rose 19% to $13.36 billion, driven by strong underlying demand trends for its medicines across all segments.Among AstraZeneca’s various therapeutic areas, Oncology product sales were up 29%, while Cardiovascular, Renal and Metabolism (“CVRM”) product sales rose 17%. The Respiratory & Immunology (R&I) segment rose 28%. Vaccines & Immune (V&I) Therapies sales rose 55%. Rare disease product sales were up 22%. Sales of other medicines were down 6%.Collaboration revenues were $815 million in the quarter compared with $277 million in the year-ago period. Alliance revenues rose 69% to $714 million, driven by continued revenue growth from partnered medicines.Alliance revenues included $392 million from Daiichi Sankyo for Enhertu and $133 million of AstraZeneca’s share of gross profits in the United States from partner Amgen AMGN for Tezspire.Alliance revenues also included $161 million for Beyfortus. AstraZeneca records 50% share of gross profits on sales of Beyfortus in major markets outside the United States and 25% of brand revenues in rest of world markets, received from partner Sanofi SNY as Alliance revenues. It also records Beyfortus product sales from products supplied to partner Sanofi under the V&I Therapies segment.Oncology Drugs Drive AstraZeneca’s Top LineIn Oncology, Tagrisso recorded sales of $1.70 billion, up 21%, on strong demand as a first-line and adjuvant treatment. Tagrisso sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of $1.68 billion and $1.62 billion, respectively.Product revenues from Lynparza rose 15% to $844 million, driven by increased market share/demand growth for all approved indications. Lynparza sales also benefited from volume growth in China, driven by increased market share. The drug’s sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate of $792 million and $789 million, respectively.AstraZeneca markets Lynparza in partnership with Merck MRK. In the quarter, AstraZeneca recognized $600 million as a milestone payment from partner Merck related to Lynparza, which was recorded under Collaboration revenues.Imfinzi generated sales of $1.25 billion in the quarter, up 18%, driven by demand growth across all approved indications, partially offset by mandatory price reductions in Japan. Its sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimates, both of which were $1.29 billion.Sales of Calquence rose 20% to $808 million in the quarter, benefiting from continued new patient share gains in frontline CLL indication across the United States and Europe.The new breast cancer drug Truqap, approved in November 2023, recorded $163 million in revenues in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with $125 million in the previous quarter.AZN’s CVRM Segment PerformanceIn CVRM, Farxiga recorded product sales of $1.93 billion in the quarter, up 21%, indicating accelerated volume growth. The label expansion approvals for heart failure and chronic kidney disease indications contributed to Farxiga’s sales growth in many ex-U.S. markets. In Emerging markets, Farxiga is witnessing solid growth despite generic competition in some. However, generic competition in Canada hurt sales. Farxiga sales marginally missed both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate. The estimated figure was $1.96 billion.Brilinta/Brilique sales were $341 million in the reported quarter, up 4%.New drug Wainua generated $42 million in product sales in the quarter compared with $23 million in third-quarter 2024.AZN’s R&I Segment PerformanceIn R&I, Symbicort sales rose 33% in the quarter to $684 million, driven by strong underlying demand in the United States, which offset the impact of generic erosion in Europe and Japan. Symbicort sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of $639 million and $616 million, respectively. Pulmicort sales declined 23% to $164 million.Fasenra recorded sales of $471 million in the quarter, up 12% year over year, driven by strong demand growth and market share gains. The drug’s sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of $437 million and $436 million, respectively.Tezspire recorded total revenues of $213 million compared with $191 million in the previous quarter. Amgen records product sales in the United States and AstraZeneca records its share of U.S. gross profits as Alliance revenues. AstraZeneca books product sales in markets outside the United States.AZN’s Rare Disease, V&I and Other SegmentIn the Rare Disease portfolio, Soliris sales fell 22% to $543 million, due to conversion to Ultomiris. The drug’s sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate of $576 million and $573 million, respectively.Ultomiris revenues were $1.09 billion, up 33%, driven by patient demand, growth in neurology indications, geographic expansions in new markets and continued conversion from Soliris.In Other Medicines, sales of Nexium declined 4% to $201 million.In V&I Therapies, AstraZeneca recorded $403 million as revenues from Beyfortus, which included alliance revenues mentioned earlier as well as sales of manufactured Beyfortus product to Sanofi.AZN’s Cost DiscussionCore selling, general and administrative expenses increased 7% at CER to $4.28 billion, due to market development for recent launches and pre-launch activities.Core research and development expenses rose 22% to $3.57 billion, due to increasing investment in the pipeline.The core operating margin was 28% in the quarter, up six percentage points on a CER basis.AZN’s FY2024 ResultsFull-year 2024 sales rose 18% year over year on a reported basis and 21% at CER to $54.07 billion. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $53.47 billion.Core EPS for 2024 was $8.21, up 13% on a reported basis and 19% at CER. Core earnings of $4.11 per ADS marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.13.2025 Guidance of AZNAstraZeneca issued fresh financial guidance for 2025. It expects total revenues to grow a high single-digit percentage at CER.Core EPS is expected to increase a low double-digit percentage.Our Take on AZN’s ResultsAstraZeneca’s fourth-quarter results were mixed, as it missed marginally the estimates for earnings but beat the mark for sales. Revenues rose across all segments with sales of most of the key drugs, including Tagrisso, Lynparza, Fasenra and Symbicort beating estimates. Based on a strong performance this year and increasing confidence in achieving certain sales-based milestones, management issued top and bottom-line guidance for 2025, which are in line with our consensus forecasts.However, shares of AstraZeneca rose about 3% in pre-market today after the British drugmaker reassured investors that the impact of the ongoing investigations in China remains minor on the business. Alongside earnings results, management stated that it expects to face a fine up to $4.5 million in China over suspected unpaid import taxes of $0.9 million for cancer drugs Imfinzi and Imjudo, if this is found liable.Year to date, the stock has risen more than 8% compared with the industry’s nearly 4% growth.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchIn December, AstraZeneca appointed Iskra Reic as its new international executive vice president, succeeding Leon Wang. This leadership change aims to stabilize operations in China following Wang’s detention by the authorities of China in October. Wang’s arrest was soon followed by other revelations, including that some current and former AstraZeneca employees involvement in medical insurance fraud, illegal drug importation and personal information breaches. Some more commentary could be expected on the conference call.For 2025, AstraZeneca expects to report first late-stage data for seven new medications, along with multiple potential approvals for its existing products. Based on the commercial potential of these news drugs, AstraZeneca believes it can post industry-leading top-line growth in the 2025-2030 period and achieve broader goal of generating $80 billion in total revenues by the end of this decade.AstraZeneca PLC Price AstraZeneca PLC price | AstraZeneca PLC QuoteAZN’s Zacks RankCurrently, AstraZeneca has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 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